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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 34 – Arizona Cardinals 26

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ARI 15, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch to ARI 19 for 4 yards (26-K.Nwangwu).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model