Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Minnesota Vikings 14

(12:23) 14-A.Lee punts 61 yards to MIN 19, Center-46-A.Brewer. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 25 for 6 yards (85-T.McBride).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 80, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model