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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 77

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to ARI 19, Center-42-A.DePaola. 83-G.Dortch pushed ob at ARI 28 for 9 yards (25-T.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 77, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP