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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 49

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:54) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to MIN 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 5-J.Reagor ran ob at MIN 14 for 6 yards (56-B.Niemann). PENALTY on MIN-21-A.Evans, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIN 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.07 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model