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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Seattle Seahawks 30

What Actually Happened

(7:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 81-M.Williams to SEA 26 for 12 yards (30-M.Jackson). LAC-81-M.Williams was injured during the play. Penalty on LAC-63-C.Linsley, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.32 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 38, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 47, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP