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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 32

Seattle Seahawks 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.17 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model