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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to SEA 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.70 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model