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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 58

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:43) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter. PENALTY on SEA-35-J.Blount, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.22 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP