Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 61

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Jets 0

(8:52) 17-C.Waitman punts 34 yards to NYJ 27, Center-48-M.Fraboni, downed by DEN-16-T.Cleveland.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.07 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model