Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 88

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(9:14) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to DEN 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-M.Washington to DEN 39 for 2 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.46 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 88, worth -5.31 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model