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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 49

Denver Broncos 9 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:37) (Shotgun) 4-B.Rypien pass incomplete deep right to 1-K.Hamler.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.55 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model