4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Jets 16 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 7-B.Mann punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.48 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model