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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 22

New York Jets 13 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(4:39) 6-G.Zuerlein 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.36 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP