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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 16

New York Jets 10 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 6-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.92 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP