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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 78

New York Jets 10 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to DEN 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.75 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP