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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 60

Denver Broncos 9 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to NYJ 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.15 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP