Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 65

New York Jets 10 – Denver Broncos 9

(6:38) 7-B.Mann punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.03 EP
62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model