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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 55

New York Jets 10 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(10:22) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.66 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP