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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 52

Denver Broncos 9 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to NYJ 13, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.91 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.95 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP