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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 27

New York Jets 7 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model