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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 50

New York Jets 7 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to DEN 1, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.90 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model