Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 75

New York Jets 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(14:44) 7-B.Mann punts 58 yards to DEN 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model