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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 38

Denver Broncos 6 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 8-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP