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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 8 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:20) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-Z.Jones to NYG 25 for 2 yards (37-F.Moreau).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.47 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model