Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New York Giants 23

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 11-M.Jones to NYG 32 for 28 yards (20-J.Love). PENALTY on NYG-99-L.Williams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.86 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -0.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model