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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 16

New York Giants 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +2.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 16, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model