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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 70

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to NYG 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 80-R.James to NYG 23 for 2 yards (6-C.Claybrooks; 42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.18 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model