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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle to NYG 20 for no gain (54-J.Smith; 20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model