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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 4 at the 46
New York Giants 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17
What Actually Happened
(1:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.09 EP
Model's Pick
-
45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.03 EP
- 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
KICK
-1.15 EP
- 36% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 64% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT
-0.38 EP
What Happened
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
