4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 50

Jacksonville Jaguars 11 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete deep middle.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +0.76 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 50, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model