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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 10

Arizona Cardinals 3 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 15-R.Blankenship 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 10, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model