4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 40

Arizona Cardinals 42 – New Orleans Saints 31

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 14-A.Lee punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.02 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 40, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP