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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 17 – Arizona Cardinals 35

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to ARI 10, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-48-J.Gray.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model