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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 4

Arizona Cardinals 6 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(3:12) (Shotgun) 79-J.Jones reported in as eligible. 1-K.Murray left end pushed ob at NO 2 for 2 yards (96-C.Granderson).

The Three Options

GO +3.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 4, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model