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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 21

Houston Texans 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 7-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.84 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model