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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 14

Houston Texans 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 38

What Actually Happened

(1:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 33-D.Ogunbowale [99-C.Ferrell].

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.25 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 14, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.78 EP