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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 17

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 7-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.26 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model