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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 33

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:41) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 28-J.Jacobs to HOU 29 for 4 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.42 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model