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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 37

Houston Texans 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(5:02) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.43 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP