4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 3 at the 63

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to GB 20, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 8-Am.Rodgers MUFFS catch, touched at GB 18, RECOVERED by WAS-35-P.Butler at GB 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model