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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 13

Washington Commanders 17 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:11) 6-J.Slye 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.60 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model