Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 69

Washington Commanders 10 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(:56) 5-T.Way punts 68 yards to GB 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-34-C.Holmes. PENALTY on WAS-34-C.Holmes, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at GB 15. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 5-T.Way punts 68 yards to GB 1, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.71 EP
66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -2.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model