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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 53 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 35-A.Williams to ATL 32 for 19 yards (26-S.Womack).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model