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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 19

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(2:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 19-D.Samuel.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.28 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model