4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 40

Atlanta Falcons 28 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 1, Center-48-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-12-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.50 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP