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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 28 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to SF 20, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.26 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP