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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 65

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 59 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 35-A.Williams to ATL 35 for 29 yards (45-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 65, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model