Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 14 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(9:31) 13-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SF 33, Center-48-L.McCullough. 3-R.McCloud to ATL 32 for 35 yards (44-T.Andersen).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.08 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model