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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 10 – New York Jets 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 13-A.Lazard.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -1.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model