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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 37

Green Bay Packers 10 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(9:19) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 85-R.Tonyan (9-K.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.41 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model